16/04/2021
The Weather (The story Of the clouds)
When I was around 13 before I had any thoughts of pottery,my sister bought me the observer's book of weather and sparked a lifelong interest.
Before the days of computer generated weather forecasts farmers and sailors in particular, would have to rely on the omens in the sky.There are many old sayings some of which are very accurate.Red sky at night shepherd's delight,"Red sky in the morning shepherds warning^ is very reliable.Mackeral sky and mares tails make tall ships carry low sails perhaps less so.One which I find particularly reliable is "The ark is out There's rain about."This usually appears in a bright blue sky and is like the backbone of a fish with ribs either side.
In folklore there is a deep mistrust of mild winters.Before the days of tarmaced roads lanes would become a quagmire and in mild wet conditios viruses would quckly spread."If the grass grows well in January it will grow the worse for all the year" "Green Christmas full churchyard is another example.
My father took me to the meteoroligical station at Gatwick airport.In those days all the weather maps were drawn by hand.There were not the worries and concerns there are today about our climate.
Forecasts were seldom accurate more than a couple of days in advance and there was an atmosphere of puoneer innocence around the whole subject.Trying to make my own forecasts from a combination of interpreting the clouds and watching the clouds amused my friends.
After.1980 I began to notice a change in weather patterns.Fairly reliable patterns in the years weather were not the same as before.From around 2000 the talk was very much of increasing carbon dioxide.To date this is now 50% above pre industrial levels.
There are many factors in global climate imcluding oceanic solar and volcanic factors.There is huge disagreements even amongst experts as to their relative influence.
In 2007 an article sppeared in the New Scientist entitled
Global warming why the sun may come to our rescue.
I discovered there is more to the changes than meets the eye .The earth in the late twentieth century was experiencing what is termed a grand solar maximum which could explain 30% of the warming in the 20th century..By 2020 the sun had come full circle and we are not entering a grand solar minimum which well last more than 30 years.
This is not in any sense to minimise the effect fossil fuels are having on the climate.In China alone there are over 1000 coal fired electricity stations and of course many nations produce grest amounts of co2.
Carbon dioxide is not an evil in it'self it is vital to photosynthesis. But in combination with other gases it traps heat in the lower atmosphere.
During a grand solar minimum cosmiic rays increase and there is correlation with this and increased volcanic activity and lower cloud formation.
Needless to say it is hugely contentious.Some think changes in the climate are purely solar driven whereas others blame man's influence.
Whatever happens it is unfolding story and with a major climate summit due to go ahead later this year our actions now may well shape the future.