02/21/2026
In the spirit of everyone being safe, we suggest calling before heading over to the office Monday/Tuesday. There will most likely be adjusted hours due to the storm. Thank you to First Due Weather from The Compound for helping us navigate through the whims of Mother Nature. Have a safe and wonderful weekend ⛄️
⚠️ Likely the Blizzard of 2026… Could Be the One We Remember
‼️ Winter Storm Warning ‼️
6 AM Sunday through 6 PM Monday
Already over 61” of snowfall from 21 wintry events this season. It’s been busy — and we’re not done yet.
I have once again planted my snowfall accumulation flag — firmly.
As a social media forecaster, I take seriously the responsibility to communicate risk early and clearly — no waffling.
We are roughly 24 hours from the start of an event that lingers into Monday evening.
If you aren’t First Due to the call — you’re late.
🎯 Snowfall Forecast: 1’ to 2’ Regionwide
I maintain a commitment to 1 to 2 feet of snowfall across Orange County and within 25 miles of the region.
To become this season’s champion storm, it must exceed the 18” measured January 25–26.
Model guidance spread remains wide:
• As low as 6” in western Orange County (some solutions)
• As high as 28”+ in southeastern Orange County
• Slight deformation band potential: 30”–36” isolated totals
The critical concern: the western cutoff line for significant snowfall.
Some reliable guidance places that cutoff:
• Along the Orange/Sullivan border
• Extending north through central Ulster County
Other high-end solutions push the low further west — spreading heavy snow toward Binghamton and bringing the significant snowfall axis deeper into our region.
After analyzing all available data:
Everyone likely sees at least 9”–18”
Many flirt with 2 feet or more
This favors the upside.
🕒 Timeline
Sunday
• Intermittent snow showers by daybreak
• Periods of light snow late morning and during the afternoon
• 1”–3” snowfall accumulation during daylight
• Temps hovering near freezing
Sunday Evening
• Steady snow develops around or just after sunset
Sunday Night → Monday Morning (Brunt of Event)
• Periods of heavy snow
• Snowfall rates 2”–4” per hour possible
• Winds gusting to 45 MPH
• Temps fall into mid/upper 20s
Monday
• Heavy morning snow transitions to intermittent light snow
• Temps near freezing
Monday Night
• Clearing and sharply colder
• Lows in the upper teens
Tuesday
• Highs near 20°F
• Tuesday night: single digits or colder
📊 Storm Totals (Projection)
• QPF: 1” to 2 1/4” liquid equivalent
• Snowfall: 1’ to 2’
• Ratios: 10:1 to 16:1
❄️ Snow Composition
• Sunday daytime: Heavier, wetter snow
• Sunday night into Monday: Drier, fluffier snow as colder air deepens
⚠️ Primary Concerns
• Snowfall rates overwhelming plowing operations
• Blowing and drifting snow with 45 MPH gusts
• Rapid travel deterioration Sunday night
• Power outage risk from heavy wet snow transitioning to wind-driven snow
🌬 Blizzard Potential
A blizzard is defined as:
• Sustained winds or frequent gusts ≥ 35 MPH
• Visibility frequently reduced below 1/4 mile
• Conditions lasting 3+ hours
If banding locks in and winds verify, this Nor’easter could meet criteria.
Classic coastal intensification setup.
I have built credibility with my experience all season with measured calls. This one has the ingredients.
Stay Safe
Keep Watching
